Do We Face Another Korean War?

When Burma had a Democracy, though it was troubled, their economy was healthy. Since the current military dictatorship took over, Burma, aka Myanmar, has experienced both oppression and poverty.

South Korea has a true democracy, and their economy is flourishing. North Korea has a dictatorship, with both oppression and  poverty, and now has the threat to its people, and the world, of another war. 

The pattern of oppression, general poverty, and war, is the pattern of dictatorship. True democracies don't start wars with other true democracies. The only exception I can think of was the brief skirmish between Argentina and England over the Falkland Islands.

There really is only one Korean people. Families are split between North and South. Reminds me of the two Germanys divided by the Cold War, with an East Berlin and a West Berlin, and that awful Wall. If that Wall and the Iron Curtain could come down without war, one might think that the two Koreas could be reunited peacefully.

The violence between Irish Catholics and Protestants has largely been calmed in Northern Ireland in recent years. The peace made between Egypt and Israel has held up during very tough times in the Middle East. Can the bargaining, negotiating, trading, and deal making that went on in those parts of the world be repeated in Korea? If not, Korea could stay divided indefinitely, with stress, tensions, and violence.

In any dispute, even in marriages, the choice is between making deals or having divorce, violence, or both.

How can peace and reunification come to the two Koreas? For sure, it won't be easy. The best way to start is with unofficial bargaining and deal offering. For example, representatives of China and the United States could first act as surrogates for the two Koreas at an informal meeting. Each hands over to the other a list of all the items desired as part of any settlement or resolution. Chances are that some items will appear on the lists of both sides. Others will require trading, negotiating, and deal making. Koreans will need to join the bargaining when the time is right. 

Both sides may agree that, over a given period of time, perhaps five to ten years, and provided that other deals are made in the meantime, the United States and any other countries still having troops in the South, will remove those foreign troops. Both sides may agree that it is a goal that over the next twenty years, or other time frame, the two Koreas will be unified to at least some extent. For example, people with families on both sides of the Demilitarized Zone can be allowed to travel North or South to visit families; commercial trade can be allowed to develop; cultural exchanges will take place. 

North and South can agree not to conduct any military "exercises" or set off any weaponry that could be interpreted as provocative by the other side. A declaration attesting to the oneness of the Korean people can be signed and published, and could possibly include the goal that there be just one Korean nation within twenty years or some other time frame.. Both sides can agree not to produce or house any nuclear weapons, and agree to having international inspection efforts verify such, at least once a year until the two Koreas are fully reunified.

Later on, or possibly when the above items are negotiated, in return for favorable trade status with the South, and with the rest of the world, the North may agree to have local democratic elections with regard to local leadership.

There must be guarantees to the leaders of the North that, if democracy is ever established in the North, and/or if reunification were to take place, the current and future leadership would be immune from arrest or from any punishment with regard to the years of non-democratic rule, nor would they be excluded from seeking election to public office. This is the same arrangement I recommend for Burma (Myanmar) in my book, The Peace Prescription.

There is an alternative: Violence, war, possible nuclear holocaust, fear, and terror on both sides, and continued oppression and poverty in the North. 

Outsiders must help, but Koreans must choose: Will it be continued division and war, or deal-making and peace? If nothing new is done, that will be a choice in favor of the former, the status quo or worse.
 
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  • 12/2/2010 3:54 PM Emmett wrote:
    I wholeheartedly agree that preventive action needs to happen immediately, however the North's inability to reasonablycompromise is rather apparent. North Korea is after Totalitarianism; first over South Korea, but it's unlikely that their desires will cease there.

    Although using China and the US as surrogates seems like a step in the right direction... I can't help but wonder whether China can be trusted as they supported North Korea during the Korean War and have continued to do so since. Perhaps it is in everybody's best interest just to bcome separate countries altogether. Each country can then govern however they wish and should any hostility arise, the antagonist will be ejected from the UN.
    Reply to this
    1. 12/2/2010 9:46 PM Edward Marshall wrote:
      Emmett, thanks for your thoughtful comments. Just as North Korea can trust China, South Korea can trust the USA in negotiations.
      Even if the two Koreas were to be declared as separate nations, we would still have the threat from the North Korean dictatorship to South Korea and elsewhere. You have wrote about that risk as well.
      Why not begin the process as I advocate in the blog? Not likely to make things worse.
      Edward Marshall

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  • 12/5/2010 1:08 PM Bob Willits wrote:
    I agree that something needs to be done about North Korea immediately, I hardly believe the problem will be solved. Aren't North and South Korea just pawns in a proxy war between China & the US?
    Reply to this
  • 12/5/2010 6:25 PM Edward Marshall wrote:
    Bob, I appreciate your comment. As you know, the only people who acomplish something are those who first believe it is possible. North Korea's dictatorial regime is very concerned about poverty in the North.
    Offering favorable trade and beginning to reduce the number of our troops near their border,, could get concessions from them, such as stopping of making nuclear weapons and allowing real inspections. Also, a lot has changed since the war of the early 1950's. These days China and the US depend on each other for many billions of trade dollars every year. So, protecting all that commerce makes both China and the USA want to keep the peace near China's border. That puts China and the USA in a great position to act as surrogates to get negotiations going to prevent war, even to make a better peace, and just maybe, a start toward a climate for the two Koreas acting more like what they really are: One people with thousands of divided families. Nothing ventured,nothing gained.
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